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Insights from our CIO
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![Michael Rosen]()
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CIO Insights are written by Angeles' CIO Michael Rosen
Michael has more than 35 years experience as an institutional portfolio manager, investment strategist, trader and academic.
RSS: CIO Blog | All Media
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![TED ELIOPOULOS: CALPERS' $300-BILLION MAN]()
8 Feb, 2015TED ELIOPOULOS: CALPERS' $300-BILLION MAN
"It's perfectly possible to be a very effective leader even if you don't have all the experience in the weeds," said Michael Rosen, a principal at Angeles Investment Advisors, which advises institutional investors.
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![Dollar]()
6 Feb, 2015Dollar
My quarterly letter talks about the strength of the US dollar and why it should continue to rise (see Chart below), but I wanted to note here the huge impact currencies have had on investors in the ...
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![Jobs, Jobs, Jobs]()
6 Feb, 2015Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
The US economy is stronger than we think: 257,000 net new jobs in January, but another 404,000 jobs were "found" (due to a recalculation) in November and December. More than 140 million are currently ...
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![PIMCO FUND HAD $11.6 BILLION OF WITHDRAWALS IN JANUARY]()
3 Feb, 2015PIMCO FUND HAD $11.6 BILLION OF WITHDRAWALS IN JANUARY
At this point, most people who've decided to exit have exited," Michael Rosen. "I think that's probably right unless performance starts deteriorating and then the floodgates will open again."
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![Consensus]()
28 Jan, 2015Consensus
Europe is a mess, everyone agrees: poor demographics, sclerotic and oppressive regulation, political dysfunction. European stocks lost 6% last year as the US gained 13%, about as wide a performance ...
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![FOR VANGUARD, THESE ARE THE BEST OF TIMES]()
26 Jan, 2015FOR VANGUARD, THESE ARE THE BEST OF TIMES
Others agree. "The trend toward passive investing is something (Vanguard founder) John Bogle really believed in," said Michael Rosen, a principal of Santa Monica, Calif.-based investment consultant Angeles Investment Advisors LLC.
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![VANGUARD'S FUNDS REACH NEW HEIGHTS]()
26 Jan, 2015VANGUARD'S FUNDS REACH NEW HEIGHTS
Although Mr. Rosen said he still believes in active management à "it just requires the right mix of resources, experience, organization and judgment to identify superior managers"
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![Statistics]()
20 Jan, 2015Statistics
Mark Twain wrote in his autobiography that there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics. How true.Revenue can be deferred (or accelerated), profits are easily manipulated, inventory ...
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![Swiss Cheese]()
15 Jan, 2015Swiss Cheese
Back in 2011, as talk of the Eurozone disintegrating was at high pitch, investors fled to the perceived safety of the Swiss franc (CHF). Naturally, the value of the currency spiked higher, threatening ...
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![WHY HIGH-YIELD DEBT SELLOFF ISN'T 2007 ALL OVER AGAIN. OR IS IT?]()
15 Jan, 2015WHY HIGH-YIELD DEBT SELLOFF ISN'T 2007 ALL OVER AGAIN. OR IS IT?
Just as many underestimated the effect defaulting subprime mortgages would have on financial markets in 2008, investors pulling money from high-yield mutual funds could spread liquidity problems to more fundamentally sound parts of financial system.
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![Market Commentary]()
13 Jan, 2015Market Commentary
A Secular Bull Market is generally defined as a long-term bullish trend consisting of larger bull markets and smaller bear markets or corrections. In a secular bull market, the corrections are often rapid and scary, but generally make higher lows...
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![IN VANGUARD'S SHADOW, SMALL FIRM SCORES TWEAKING INDEXES]()
13 Jan, 2015IN VANGUARD'S SHADOW, SMALL FIRM SCORES TWEAKING INDEXES
"Educated advisers are more likely to prevent their clients from making radical changes when markets drop," said Rosen. "The fact that those assets are sticky will add value for the investors."
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![DODGE & COX GROWS ON PERFORMANCE, PIMCO FLOW]()
12 Jan, 2015DODGE & COX GROWS ON PERFORMANCE, PIMCO FLOW
While performance at both funds is strong, it's clear the Dodge & Cox bond strategy benefited from outflows at PIMCO, said investment consultant Michael Rosen, a principal of Angeles Investment Advisors LLC, Santa Monica, Calif.
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![Weighty]()
8 Jan, 2015Weighty
Among new year resolutions, losing weight tops the list for the majority of Americans. Actually, I made up that statistic, but in my defense, (a) it probably is true, and (b) it most certainly should ...
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![PIMCO NAMES BERNANKE, BROWN, TRICHET TO GLOBAL ADVISORY BOARD]()
7 Jan, 2015PIMCO NAMES BERNANKE, BROWN, TRICHET TO GLOBAL ADVISORY BOARD
"It's possible to imagine that there's some insight these individuals can provide,"" Rosen, whose Santa Monica, California-based firm advises on more than $25 billion, said in a telephone interview.
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![PIMCO TOTAL RETURN SUFFERS WORST YEAR FOR REDEMPTIONS, WITH GROSS, EL-ERIAN DEPA]()
3 Jan, 2015PIMCO TOTAL RETURN SUFFERS WORST YEAR FOR REDEMPTIONS, WITH GROSS, EL-ERIAN DEPA
"You could still see some more outflows and then it probably stabilizes, unless performance really deteriorates," Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles Investment Advisers in Santa Monica, Calif., said.
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![Shipping]()
2 Jan, 2015Shipping
First, happy new year to all!I walked into the office this morning to a crystal clear view of the Pacific. What a beautiful start to the year!In the distance, I could see a giant container ship which, ...
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![4TH QUARTER 2014 - CANUTE]()
1 Jan, 20154TH QUARTER 2014 - CANUTE
Beginning in the late 8th century, an intrepid band of explorers set out from their harsh, frozen lands, first to plunder, then to conquer most of northern Europe and beyond. To the east they settled the vast European steppes of Poland and Ukraine...
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![GDP]()
23 Dec, 2014GDP
Normally, I wouldn't comment on any single economic release, but today's GDP revision adds to the mounting evidence of a strengthening US economy. GDP growth in the third quarter was revised up to ...
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![Too Many Words]()
22 Dec, 2014Too Many Words
Among monetary economists, there is a raging debate over the merits of the Fed's burgeoning balance sheet. Back in November 2010, an open letter to Fed chairman Ben Bernanke was published in the Wall ...
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![Energy Panic]()
16 Dec, 2014Energy Panic
Take a look at the price of a barrel of good ol West Texas Intermediate (see graph below). Two things jump out at me: big declines occur in recessions (which makes sense as demand falls), and theres a ...
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![Europe Sputters, US Cruises]()
15 Dec, 2014Europe Sputters, US Cruises
Europe's unemployment rate is 11.5%. Europe is currently growing at less than 1%. A rule of thumb is that it takes excess growth of 2-2.5% to drop the unemployment rate by 1%. I think you see the ...
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![Deflation? Not US]()
9 Dec, 2014Deflation? Not US
The dramatic (40%!) drop in oil prices has caused some hysteria in the media about the rising risks of deflation. After all, lower energy prices is deflationary. Well, that's not quite true.Inflation ...
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![Labor Market]()
5 Dec, 2014Labor Market
Oh, this was a strong report this morning, on every level:321,000 net new jobs in November.10 consecutive months of +200,000 payroll gains (228,000 on average over the past year).Labor force expanded ...
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