Still in Neutral

The first quarter began with a bang and ended with a whimper. At least, that’s the message from the VIX (volatility index—see below). Bouncing around an elevated level of around 28 for much of January and February, the VIX fell 50% to 14 by the end of March.

At a high level, we have maintained a pretty neutral stance in our portfolios. I didn’t think the sell-off in the beginning of the year was the beginning of a new bear market, so we held our ground. The March rally brought global equities all the way back to flat for the year, but I don’t see cause to celebrate much. The global economy is sputtering along, and I haven’t seen any serious discussion, much less action, toward addressing the long-term declines in productivity and growth rates.

Valuations are fine, generally in-line with where they “should” be (see table below, courtesy of J.P. Morgan). I suppose oil and (US) homes look a bit cheap, and government bonds expensive, but take valuation measures as the blunt instruments they are. Equities, broadly, are close to fair value, in my opinion.

So, our models, at the high level, are in-line. There are some interesting, idiosyncratic ideas we are seeing around the world, but I don’t (yet) feel compelled to add risk broadly, or to bury gold in the backyard. Still in neutral.

• 22 May, 2015

  Don't Blame Nature

  Commodity prices rise and fall; no great insight there. Which is why most of us, mostly, take the fluctuations in ...

• 11 Sep, 2015

  Mauled

  Investors in Emerging Markets could be forgiven for feeling as if they've gone 15 rounds with Ronda Rousey (see below). ...

• 14 Jan, 2020

  From the Kentucky Coal Mines to the California Sun

  Rupp Arena is one of the iconic venues for college basketball in the country. It is named for Adolph Rupp, the legendary ...