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Insights from our CIO
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![Michael Rosen]()
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CIO Insights are written by Angeles' CIO Michael Rosen
Michael has more than 35 years experience as an institutional portfolio manager, investment strategist, trader and academic.
RSS: CIO Blog | All Media
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![Distortion or Reflation?]()
21 May, 2015Distortion or Reflation?
A month ago, Germany could borrow for 10 years at a rate of 0.06%. Lenders were also happy that day to earn 0.47% for the next 30 years. That's $4,700 of annual interest for every $1 million. ...
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![Trade]()
7 May, 2015Trade
The trade deficit ballooned in March to over $51 billion, $8.6 billion more than a year ago. Exports were up a little, but imports surged, up more than $17 billion from February, the biggest monthly ...
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![Feliz Cinco de Mayo!]()
5 May, 2015Feliz Cinco de Mayo!
There will always be a debate about the relevance of history to current conditions. I am firmly in the pro-history camp, but am quick to acknowledge that historical analogies are always imperfect. ...
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![Skyscraping]()
4 May, 2015Skyscraping
In 2009, there were 19 buildings in the world with heights above 1,000 feet (305 meters for the non-American readers). Today there are 79 such buildings, a four-fold increase in just 5 years! And if ...
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![Wages]()
1 May, 2015Wages
They're going up. Total salaries and benefits moved up 4.4% in 2014, rising to 53.6% of GDP, still below historic averages, but a decided bounce off the lows recently seen (Chart 1).One reason wage ...
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![Seven Lean Years? Done in Seven Minutes]()
30 Apr, 2015Seven Lean Years? Done in Seven Minutes
In Genesis (41:27), Joseph interprets Pharaoh's dream of 7 fat cows followed by 7 lean (and apparently, ugly) cows, as foretelling the coming feast and then famine, enabling Egypt to prepare for the ...
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![Valuation]()
21 Apr, 2015Valuation
Most observers would agree that equities are rich (expensive, overpriced, etc.). Corporate profits are at record highs, and the forward price-to-(optimistic) earnings multiple on the S&P 500, at ...
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![Sine Aqua]()
14 Apr, 2015Sine Aqua
The Ancient Mariner violated Nature by killing an albatross for sport, thus condemning his boat and crew to the purgatory of the open sea where, one by one, each of crew dies. Lamenting his fate, the ...
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![California Dreamin']()
2 Apr, 2015California Dreamin'
Well, maybe not dreaming, but some thoughts.Below, my graph shows the unemployment rates for California and the US since 1976. California was generally better than the country in the 1980s, and has ...
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![New Owners]()
1 Apr, 2015New Owners
A few years, I was at a conference, standing in a buffet line. I must have become fixated on extracting the blueberries from the fruit platter (I really like blueberries, and those cheap tongs at ...
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![1ST QUARTER 2015 - FUNAMBULISM]()
1 Apr, 20151ST QUARTER 2015 - FUNAMBULISM
Sports have been an integral part of human existence since, well, the beginning. Drawings in the Lascaux caves in France from more than 17,000 years ago (see below) depict swimming, running and wrestling. Sports are featured in the relics of...
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![Negative Yields]()
19 Mar, 2015Negative Yields
One of the (many) perplexing phenomena facing investors is the persistent (and falling) low yields on government bonds.Most of the time, we look to real yields to determine the impact of interest ...
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![Erin Go Bragh!]()
17 Mar, 2015Erin Go Bragh!
In honor of St. Patrick, I thought I'd share this (mostly) green chart with you, showing the DJIA over the past 115 years, delineated by bull and bear markets (courtesy of Ned Davis Research).US ...
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![Rebalancings]()
16 Mar, 2015Rebalancings
Apologies for slipping on the blogs, but I've been traveling around the continent, from Alaska to DC.One of the more common questions/comments we've heard from clients this quarter relates to the ...
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![Not Deflation]()
26 Feb, 2015Not Deflation
The Consumer Price Index dropped 0.7% in January, bringing the year-over-year change to negative 0.1%. With the exception of the 2008 financial meltdown, the January decline brought the index to its ...
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![Diversify]()
19 Feb, 2015Diversify
Each year for clients we update a very colorful graphic ranking the annual performance of various asset classes. Each asset class has its own color, and the graphic is striking because of the ...
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![Patience]()
17 Feb, 2015Patience
Interest rate cycles are long: lasting not years, but decades. Consequently, we don't have many data points for statistically significant conclusions about patterns. That said, we work with what we ...
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![Where Have All the Bonds Gone?]()
9 Feb, 2015Where Have All the Bonds Gone?
Apologies to Pete Seeger for stealing his song lyric, but I think bonds and flowers are sufficiently different that he wouldn't mind.The chart below (from our friends at Morgan Stanley) shows that net ...
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![Dollar]()
6 Feb, 2015Dollar
My quarterly letter talks about the strength of the US dollar and why it should continue to rise (see Chart below), but I wanted to note here the huge impact currencies have had on investors in the ...
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![Jobs, Jobs, Jobs]()
6 Feb, 2015Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
The US economy is stronger than we think: 257,000 net new jobs in January, but another 404,000 jobs were "found" (due to a recalculation) in November and December. More than 140 million are currently ...
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![Consensus]()
28 Jan, 2015Consensus
Europe is a mess, everyone agrees: poor demographics, sclerotic and oppressive regulation, political dysfunction. European stocks lost 6% last year as the US gained 13%, about as wide a performance ...
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![Statistics]()
20 Jan, 2015Statistics
Mark Twain wrote in his autobiography that there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics. How true.Revenue can be deferred (or accelerated), profits are easily manipulated, inventory ...
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![Swiss Cheese]()
15 Jan, 2015Swiss Cheese
Back in 2011, as talk of the Eurozone disintegrating was at high pitch, investors fled to the perceived safety of the Swiss franc (CHF). Naturally, the value of the currency spiked higher, threatening ...
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![Market Commentary]()
13 Jan, 2015Market Commentary
A Secular Bull Market is generally defined as a long-term bullish trend consisting of larger bull markets and smaller bear markets or corrections. In a secular bull market, the corrections are often rapid and scary, but generally make higher lows...
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